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Lessons from History

What the market's biggest moments teach you.

Real, well-documented market episodes — each paired with a plain-English takeaway about the risk in your own portfolio. General education, not advice.

Drawdowns & recovery

The dot-com crash

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell roughly 75-80% peak-to-trough in the 2000-2002 dot-com bust, and took around 15 years to reclaim its 2000 high.

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Drawdowns & recovery

The global financial crisis

The S&P 500 fell about 57% peak-to-trough during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

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Drawdowns & recovery

The COVID crash and snapback

The S&P 500 fell about 34% in roughly five weeks in Feb-Mar 2020, then recovered its prior high within about six months.

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Drawdowns & recovery

Recovery math is asymmetric

A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to get back to where you started.

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Drawdowns & recovery

The 2022 rate shock

The Nasdaq fell around 33% in 2022 as interest rates rose sharply.

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Concentration

The ASX is top-heavy

The S&P/ASX 200's top 10 companies are around 45-50% of the index, dominated by banks and miners.

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Concentration

The US is most of the world

The US is roughly 60-70% of global equity market capitalisation.

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Concentration

Index concentration is rising

In recent years a handful of mega-cap technology names have driven a large share of US index returns.

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Concentration

Overlapping ETFs

Many popular ETFs hold the same mega-caps, so stacking several often increases overlap rather than diversification.

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Diversification

Correlations rise in a crash

In sharp sell-offs, correlations between holdings tend to rise toward 1 as almost everything falls together.

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Diversification

Home bias

Australian investors typically hold far more domestic equity than Australia's ~2% share of global markets.

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Diversification

Most stocks underperform

Research by Hendrik Bessembinder found a small minority of stocks account for most of the market's long-run wealth creation.

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Diversification

Bonds usually — but not always — cushion

Bonds have historically softened equity drawdowns, though not in every episode (notably 2022, when both fell together).

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Valuation & cycles

Starting valuation matters

Higher starting valuations have historically been associated with lower long-run returns.

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Valuation & cycles

The market is not the economy

Stock markets and GDP frequently diverge over multi-year stretches.

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Valuation & cycles

Rate regimes reshape leadership

Falling rates have historically flattered long-duration and growth assets; rising rates have pressured them.

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Valuation & cycles

Sector leadership rotates

The leading sector of one decade is rarely the leader of the next.

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Investor behaviour

The behaviour gap

Studies (e.g. DALBAR, Morningstar 'Mind the Gap') suggest average investors earn less than the funds they own, by mistiming buys and sells.

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Investor behaviour

Time in the market vs timing it

Missing a handful of the market's best days sharply reduces long-run returns, and the best days often cluster near the worst.

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Investor behaviour

Recency bias

Investors tend to extrapolate recent performance into the future.

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Costs & compounding

Fees compound too

A 1% annual fee can consume a large share of lifetime returns once compounded over decades.

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Costs & compounding

The reward for equity risk is slow

Broad, diversified equity indices have historically compounded around 7-10% a year nominal over the very long run, with multiple 30-50% drawdowns along the way.

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Costs & compounding

Rebalancing enforces discipline

Periodic rebalancing systematically trims what's grown and tops up what's lagged.

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Costs & compounding

Turnover has a tax cost

Frequent trading can trigger capital gains and reduce compounding; in Australia, holding an asset over 12 months can access the CGT discount.

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